After ‘Elemental’ Bombs, Can Pixar Restore Its Box Office Touch?

Pixars chief creative officer Pete Docter recently told the press that he doesnt think of Pixar as making childrens programming.

By the look of box office returns for the studios recent animated offerings, it would appear that kids have taken notice and havent been so inclined to watch those movies in theaters.

Over the weekend, Elemental collapsed at the domestic box office with a $29.5 million opening, by far the worst debut in Pixars 28-year history. Even forgettable Pixar adventures, like 2015s The Good Dinosaur ($39 million), 2020s Onward ($39 million) and last years massive money-loser Lightyear ($51 million), managed to fill more seats in their opening weekends.

The film didnt rebound much at the international box office with $15 million from select markets, bringing its global tally to a disastrous $44.5 million.

Theres a bigger issue for Pixar: its not just youngsters, but general audiences, too, who are rejecting the studios theatrical movies. At this rate, the $200 million-budgeted Elemental is shaping up to be its third consecutive misfire following Lightyear and Onward. Its a depressing streak for the animation empire that spent decades as the gold standard of family films, and one that has industry analysts wondering: Can Pixar restore its former box office glory?

Its going to be difficult, but its not a mountain they cant climb, says Jeff Bock, a box office analyst with Exhibitor Relations. Itll just be perilous.

Pixar has been struggling since the pandemic, when its corporate overlords at Disney used the pedigree of the animation brand to prop up its new streaming service. During that period, new offerings Soul, Luca and Turning Red were sent directly to Disney+ and family audiences became accustomed to expect those movies at home.

Its more expensive for a family of four to go to a theater when they know they can wait and itll come out on the platform, Docter has since admitted to Variety. Now, the studio is attempting to reverse course. In an effort to remind the public that Pixar is once again making movies for multiplexes, Disney shelled out to send Elemental to the Cannes Film Festival, where it was greeted with a five-minute standing ovation. Were trying to make sure people realize theres a great deal youre missing by not seeing it on the big screen, Docter added.

In fairness, says Shawn Robbins, the chief analyst at Box Office Pro, the shifting of consumer behavior is less on the Pixar team itself and more on the former Disney leadership that siphoned three of the animation hubs films to streaming as part of a broader strategy.

In that time, though, family audiences became more discerning about the kinds of movies that they felt are worth leaving the house for. Brand recognition has been a big part in the success of recent family films, such as The Super Mario Bros. Movie and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.

For original films like Elemental, its been an especially unforgiving movie market. Directed by Peter Sohn, the story is set in a world inhabited by anthropomorphic elements of nature and revolves around a fire element named Ember and water element called Wade. (Surprise they have more in common than meets the eye!)

Elemental is not based on established IP, says David A. Gross, who runs the movie consulting firm Franchise Entertainment Research. Of the recent animation titles, this is clearly the most challenging to open.

In the past, Pixar has thrived on ambitious, sophisticated stories that took bold artistic risks, like the nearly silent Wall-E, the metaphysical comedy Inside Out and Ratatouille, the story of an aspiring chef who just happens to be a rodent. Those films, all critical and commercial darlings, paid off with big profits. Its left audiences expecting a lot from Pixar. So even though Elemental landed decent reviews and a promising A CinemaScore, ticket buyers werent quite talking up the film as the next Up or Coco.

Reviews for original movies need to knock your socks off to cut through the noise, says Bock. There are a lot of choices out there.

Pixar doesnt have a new theatrical release until 2024, when Elio, which follows an 11-year-old misfit on an intergalactic adventure, opens on March 1; and Inside Out 2, a sequel to the 2015 cerebral hit, is set for June 14. Thats time that the studio could use to rethink how to restore the stellar legacy that once made it the reigning champion of animation.

Pixar itself does have some big creative shoes to fill after such a storied history, Robbins adds. But a passion for relatable storytelling that connects with audiences of all ages and backgrounds has always been one of their fundamentals.