Big Openings Beyond Superhero Genre Restore Studio Hopes for Tentpoles

Just when big-budget movies were starting to look like a risky proposition at the box office, a pair of new pics renewed Hollywoods faith over the past few weekends.

After two underperforming sequels made once seemingly invincible superhero mega-franchises look mortal, two non-superhero titles delivered strong results. Paramounts new Dungeons Dragons: Honor Among Thieves scored the No. 1 spot over the weekend on a $150 million budget. The week prior, Lionsgates fourth John Wick film yielded a record opening for the R-rated action franchise.

These back-to-back hits were welcome news after Disneys third Ant-Man film in its Marvel Cinematic Universe saw gross massively drop off in the weekends after its own record opening. Then last month, Warner Bros. Shazam! sequel in its DC Extended Universe opened to just $30 million and has also seen attendance shrinkquickly.

Both films were budgeted above $100 million for production alone $200 million in the case of Ant-Man thereby underscoring the increasingly problematic pattern of pricey superhero movies no longer delivering typically high results, an obvious contributor to why analysts have lowered their estimates for tentpoles average gross.

Evercore ISI Research projected last month that big-budget films from the major studios in 2023 would rake in 27% less on average globally than last year. That would be a significant decline, as the average gross for such studio tentpoles was down only 3% in 2022 when compared with the five years leading up to the pandemic, making it appear as though things were returning to normal.

Whether normal is still just around the corner will be put to the test in the coming months, as several more Marvel and DC films bow in theaters. The third Guardians of the Galaxy following a similar pattern as Ant-Man could further complicate matters for Disney as Warner Bros. preps The Flash for its summerdate after the chaos of star Ezra Millers legal issues.

And while Spider-Man may seem rock solid at Sony after the wildly successful run of No Way Home in theaters, the heros animated Spider-Versefranchisehas yet to prove whether its more than a one-hit wonder when the first of two sequels kicks off June.

While there are fears that the wider availability of movies on streaming issouring audiences on theaters, survey data released last week from UTA IQ shows younger generations are showing up most to the cineplex these days, with 45% of millennials and 39% of Gen Z respondents saying they went to the movies five or more times in 2022. Gen Z has the highest post-pandemic return rate overall, with 77% of respondents having gone back to the movies. For Gen X and boomers, the return rate is 58% and 41%, respectively.

The more pronounced reluctance to return for older folks is undoubtedly playing a role in the decline of grosses seen for prestige films throughout the most recent awards season, where box-office success story Everything Everywhere All at Once swept the Oscars and won best picture.

That said, both Amazon and Apple are trying their own hand at theatrical success, with the formers Air getting a wide release Wednesday and the latter having joined Amazon in announcing plans to spend billions on films for theaters.

That victory run for Everything Everywhere, A24s best film ever at the box office, is emblematic of Evercore ISI Researchs projection that mid-to-low-budget films from the major studios will see average year-over-year gross increase 15% in 2023 as big-budget films struggle to keep the same audiences. Everything Everywhere cost under $30 million to produce, while Paramounts latest Scream sequel delivered record gross for the revived horror franchise on a budget of a little over$30 million.

Having just about closed its run, Avatar: The Way of Water is also proof that big budgets shouldnt be confined to superheroes, as its now the third highest-grossing film of all time, granting necessary relief to Disneys ongoing issues with losses in its direct-to-consumer operations as it lays off thousands of employees, including top Marvel brass.

Striking the right balance between theatrical exclusivity and digital windows remains a challenge for the studios. Disney and Sony have exercised the most restraint, with average theatrical windows just under 60 days in 2022. Its an easier balance for Sony, as the companys absence from the streaming market and Pay 1 deal with Netflix have enabled it to keep its films exclusive to VOD platforms for far longer than the other major studios do before putting their films on their own streaming platforms. Disney sends its films to Disney+ almost immediately after their theatrical windows end.

One might think the ability to send films to digital platforms quicker than before would be beneficial if big films can run out of steam too quickly at the box office. The studio products most likely to get a second life on their respective streaming services are typically those that were already popular in theaters, as was the case with the Top Gun: Maverick debut on Paramount+ and Elvis on HBO Max.

These platforms arent going away, but the fact remains: Theaters are the best shot at recouping the expenses of tentpoles. Its just a matter of filtering out whats grown stale with what rejuvenates audiences.