Box Office Preview: ‘Super Mario Bros.’ Aims for $125 Million, Ben Affleck’s ‘Air’ Targets $16 Million Debut

Mario, Luigi and Princess Peach are poised to clobber the box office competition as The Super Mario Bros. Movie readies to power past the $100 million mark in its opening weekend.

Universal and Illuminations big screen adaptation of the popular video game, which opens in 4,000 North American theaters on Wednesday, looks to collect a towering $125 million or more in its first five days of release. Itll be the second 2023 release, following Disneys Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania ($106 million) to open above $100 million.

Mario will easily lead domestic box office charts over last weekends champ, Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, as well as fellow newcomer Air, a sports drama directed by Ben Affleck.

Ticket sales for DD are projected to drop by 50-55% after its $37.2 million opening weekend. Itll be in a close race for second place with Air, which debuts on Wednesday and aims to score $16 million to $18 million over the five-day period. Amazon is bringing the $90 million-budgeted movie to 3,507 cinemas, marking one of the rare streaming-backed movies to get a traditional theatrical release.

Mario, directed by Aaron Horvath and Michael Jelenic, follows the mustachioed plumber and friends as they prepare to stop the all-powerful Bowser from world domination. Varietys chief film critic Owen Gleiberman praised The Super Mario Bros. Movie as sheer animated fun, writing that second times the charm for Mario on film.

Thats a relief to fans who were burned by the 1993 live-action Super Mario Bros, starring Bob Hoskins as Mario and John Leguizamo as Luigi, which became the textbook example of failed video game adaptations after flopping in spectacular fashion. So, despite the brands ubiquity Nintendo has reportedly sold more than 413 million copies of the game and grossed more than $30 billion since 1985 the upcoming Mario movie wasnt a guaranteed win for Universal, Illumination, and Marios creator Shigeru Miyamoto. (On top of that, Pratts casting of the playful Italian plumber, didnt go over well on the internet.)

But times and tastes have changed since the ill-fated adaptation from the 90s. The Super Mario Bros. Movie comes to the big screen at (comparatively) boon times for game-to-screen stories. The genre, which was once filled with more misses than hits, has experienced a revival thanks to Sonic the Hedgehog and its 2022 sequel, Tom Hollands Uncharted and more recently, Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves.

Elsewhere, Air is hoping to serve as counter-programming by catering to a different kind of enthusiast sneaker-heads. Amazon Studios spent $40 million to market the movie, including a rousing premiere at SXSW. Its not clear how long the film is playing on the big screen before itll stream on Prime Video or what kind of ticket sales itll need to count as a win for Amazon.

Air recounts the true story of the Nike shoe salesman who pursues NBA rookie Michael Jordan for a deal to wear their shoes. Affleck also directed the R-rated film in his first return behind the camera since 2016s Live by Night. Matt Damon and Affleck are reuniting as Nike executive Sonny Vaccaro and Nike co-founder Phil Knight, respectively, while Viola Davisis starring as Michael Jordans mother, Deloris.

In Varietys review, chief film critic Peter Debruge referred to Air as the ultimate example of the American dream, a funny, touching Cinderella story about how the third-place sneaker brand wished upon a star, and how that man and his mother were smart enough to know their value.