TIFF Audience Award Predictions: What Movie Will Get an Oscar Boost?

What will the people choose?

In its final stretch, on Sunday, the Toronto International Film Festival will announce the film chosen by the public for the Peoples Choice Award of its 48th edition. After Poor Things took home the Golden Lion at Venice, we look to the Canadian awards season staple to boost a film in the hunt for best picture.

The top prize has become one of the most vital predictors of awards season success. In past years, best picture winners such as Peter Farrellys Green Book (2018) and Chloe Zhaos Nomadland (2020) made a winning stop at TIFF before getting Oscar glory. Other TIFF Audience Award recipients such as The Fabelmans (2022), Belfast (2021), Jojo Rabbit (2019), Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (2017) and La La Land (2016) are among the movies that went on to receive noms.

So, which movies are buzzing with support? The movie that wins at TIFF is often tied to two critical factors the number of attendees and the timing of its first screening.

Read:VarietysAwards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

The fest started with the North American premiere of GKids The Boy and the Heron, the first animated feature from legend Hayao Miyazaki in a decade, which played to a sold-out screening. The positive reception could give a boost as it heads into a season where it will face the blockbuster hit Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse from Sony Pictures. The campaign team will also need the help since the 82-year-old filmmaker isnt doing any promotion for the film.

Colman Domingo in Rustin David Lee/Netflix 2022 After the first weekend, when most of the World Premieres occur, many attendees and journalists head home, leaving acquisition titles and films that bowed at other fests to fight it out for those still around.

George C. Wolfes historical biopic Rustin is a crowd-pleaser and is said to have played to rapturous applause on Tuesday. However, its star Colman Domingo, who received one of the TIFF Tribute Awards, had another hit at the fest, the independent Sing Sing, which tells the story of a theater group made up of formerly incarcerated actors. Domingo was allowed to promote due to receiving a SAG interim agreement, and his presence helped the movie garner a four-minute standing ovation. That could give the movie an edge over his civil rights movie from Netflix, or worse yet, create a vote split. Nonetheless, he remains one of the leading contenders in the best actor race.

With that said, I suspect Alexander Paynes The Holdovers, with Paul Giamatti and DaVine Joy Randolph, will be the one to be named the peoples choice. The Focus Features movie was popular based on social media reactions and in-person conversations with some festival-goers. Its the type of dramedy that mass audiences respond to, which helped TIFF runner-up flicks like St. Vincent (2014) and Philomena (2013). This could get over the finish line.

MGM American Fiction

Were watching out for the two surprise hits out of TIFF Ava DuVernays Origin and Cord Jeffersons American Fiction that each brought down the house at their initial screenings. Even though they explore varying subject matter within separate genres, the brilliant writing may create divides among general consumers. But movies labeled difficult to watch like Roma (2018) managed to at least get in the top three before receiving 10 Oscar noms. Even the slave epic 12 Years a Slave (2013) managed to win the Toronto Peoples Choice for Steve McQueen before winning best picture. In the style of an Alexander Payne movie like Sideways (2004), Jeffersons comedy about Black exploitation could be in the running with its sharp satire and fantastic performances.

Theres always room for surprises. No one expected Nadine Labakis Where Do We Go Now? (2011) to take the award over the eventual international feature winner A Separation during that year, while David Cronenbergs Eastern Promises (2007) dropped a few jaws went it won over the future original screenplay winner Juno.

Potential shockers could be GameStop stock drama Dumb Money, the prize, especially since its director Craig Gillespie nearly won the TIFF award for I, Tonya (2017). With a large ensemble and a timely story, the Sony film could accelerate its chances in adapted screenplay (and maybe more).

The Jamie Foxx and Tommy Lee Jones legal dramedy The Burial from Maggie Betts was also gobbled up at its Monday evening premiere. A quintessential crowdpleaser, it could make pundits believe in the Amazon MGM title.

Varietys top 10 TIFF Audience Award projections are below. Also, read the latest Oscar predictions in all categories.

Top 10 TIFF Audience Winner PredictionsThe Holdovers (Focus Features) Alexander PayneThe Boy and the Heron (GKids) Hayao MiyazakiOrigin (Neon) Ava DuVernayAmerican Fiction (MGM) Cord JeffersonRustin (Netflix) George C. WolfeSing Sing (No U.S. Distribution) Greg KwedarThe Burial (Amazon MGM) Maggie BettsHis Three Daughters (No U.S. Distribution) Azazel JacobsOne Life (No U.S. Distribution) James HawesWicked Little Letters (No U.S. Distribution) Thea Sharrock