Oscars Predictions: Best Original Screenplay — ‘Barbie’ Categorization Could Determine Whether Greta Gerwig Wins

VarietyAwards Circuitsection is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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2023 Oscars Predictions:

Best Original Screenplay

Saltburn Courtesy of Amazon Studios MGM Weekly Commentary (Updated Aug. 24, 2023): Barbie is the highest-grossing film of the year (so far) and Warner Bros. has a viable awards player across the board. One lingering question remains: Which screenplay category it is designated to compete in?

On the title cards, it reads Based on Barbie by Mattel, which is a toy company. At the same time, multiple CGI films and TV series have featured the fashion doll since its debut in the late 1980s (42 to be precise). This would point to an adapted run. However, take the case of Pixars inaugural feature Toy Story (1995), which picked up an original screenplay nom (Joss Whedon, Andrew Stanton, Joel Cohen, Alec Sokolow, John Lasseter, Pete Docter, Joe Ranft). In that case, it offers a pathway for original. The CGI classic features characters such as Mr. Potato Head, a Hasbro product, and other toys such as Etch A Sketch, Magic 8 Ball and even parts of Barbie herself. Part of the Mutant Toys, which are creations of Andys sadistic kid neighbor Sid, he has one called Legs which are a pair of Barbie doll legs attached to a green toy fishing rod.

One of the most prominent examples of existing IP and toy products competing in original was Warner Bros The Lego Movie, based on the famed building blocks from Phil Lord and Chris Miller. The film had pre-existing characters like Batman and Superman in it. Ultimately, it wasnt nominated.

From a competitive standpoint, previous Oscar nominees Gerwig and Baumbach competing against independent dramas like Past Lives (Celine Song) or dramedies like May December (Sam Burch, Alex Mechanik) would present a better winning opportunity than going against Barbenheimer rival Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan) or a movie featuring legends like Killers of the Flower Moon (Eric Roth and Martin Scorsese).

Well keep an eye on that debate. Until then, we still have other potential favorites from the first half of 2023, such as Past Lives by Celine Song and Air by Alex Convery.

Fall festivals will help fill this category out over the next few weeks.

Read:VarietysAwards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 18, 2023. Preliminary shortlist voting will begin on Dec. 18, with the results announced on Dec. 21. The voting period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominations announcement on Jan. 23.

The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.

Listed writer credits are not final. The Academy ultimately determines the official nominees. And the Predicted Nominees Are:Barbie (Warner Bros.) Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach **Past Lives (A24) Celine Song Saltburn (Amazon Studios) Emerald FennellMay December (Netflix) Samy Burch, Alex MechanikThe Holdovers (Focus Features) David Hemingson Next in LineFair Play (Netflix) Chloe DomontMaestro (Netflix) Bradley Cooper, Josh SingerAir (Amazon Studios) Alex ConveryAnatomy of a Fall (Neon) Justin Triet, Arthur HarariThe Iron Claw (A24) Sean Durkin Other Top-Tier PossibilitiesAsteroid City (Focus Features) Wes Anderson, Roman CoppolaNapoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures) David ScarpaWish (Walt Disney Pictures) Jennifer Lee, Allison MooreRustin (Netflix) Julian Breece, Dustin Lance BlackEl Conde (Netflix) Pablo Larran, Guillermo CaldernFingernails (Apple Original Films) Christos NikouMigration (Illumination) Mike WhiteMonica (IFC Films) Andrea Pallaoro, Orlando TiradoA Little Prayer (Sony Pictures Classics) Angus MacLachlanFallen Leaves (Mubi) Aki Kaurismki Also In ContentionShe Came to Me (Vertical Entertainment) Rebecca MillerFlora and Son (Apple Original Films) John CarneyA Thousand and One (Focus Features) A.V. RockwellCassandro (Amazon Studios) Roger Ross Williams, David TeagueSomewhere in Queens (Roadside Attractions) Ray Romano, Mark StegemannElemental (Pixar) Peter Sohn, John Hoberg, Kat Likkel, Brenda HsuehJoy Ride (Lionsgate) Cherry Chevapravatdumrong, Teresa Hsiao, Adele LimShadya (Sony Pictures Classics) Noora NiasariChevalier (Searchlight Pictures) Stefani RobinsonDream Scenario (A24) Kristoffer Borgli All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**The Creator (20th Century Studios) Gareth Edwards, Chris WeitzBeau is Afraid (A24) Ari AsterDream Scenario (A24) Kristoffer BorgliThe Iron Claw (A24) Sean DurkinPast Lives (A24) Celine SongShowing Up (A24) Jon Raymond, Kelly ReichardtYou Hurt My Feelings (A24) Nicole HolofcenerCassandro (Amazon Studios) Roger Ross Williams, David TeagueSaltburn (Amazon Studios) Emerald FennellFingernails (Apple Original Films) Christos NikouFlora and Son (Apple Original Films) John CarneyNapoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures) David ScarpaSuzume (Crunchyroll) Makoto ShinkaiAsteroid City (Focus Features) Wes Anderson, Roman CoppolaThe Holdovers (Focus Features) David HemingsonA Thousand and One (Focus Features) A.V. RockwellThe Boy and the Heron (GKids/Toho) Hayao MiyazakiMonica (IFC Films) Andrea Pallaoro, Orlando TiradoMigration (Illumination) Mike WhiteJoy Ride (Lionsgate) Cherry Chevapravatdumrong, Teresa Hsiao, Adele LimMaster Gardener (Magnolia Pictures) Paul SchraderBottoms (MGM/Orion) Emma Seligman, Rachel SennottFallen Leaves (Mubi) Aki KaurismkiAnatomy of a Fall (Neon) Justin Triet, Arthur HarariLa Chimera (Neon) Alice RohrwacherPerfect Days (Neon) Takuma Takasaki, Wim WendersEl Conde (Netflix) Pablo Larran, Guillermo CaldernFair Play (Netflix) Chloe DomontMay December (Netflix) Samy Burch, Alex MechanikMaestro (Netflix) Bradley Cooper, Josh SingerRebel Moon: Part One A Child of Fire (Netflix) Zack Snyder, Kurt Johnstad, Shay HattenRustin (Netflix) Julian Breece, Dustin Lance BlackBob Marley: One Love (Paramount Pictures) Zach Baylon, Frank E. Flowers, Terence Winter **Elemental (Pixar) Peter Sohn, John Hoberg, Kat Likkel, Brenda HsuehMoving On (Roadside Attractions) Paul WeitzSomewhere in Queens (Roadside Attractions) Ray Romano, Mark StegemannChevalier (Searchlight Pictures) Stefani RobinsonMagazine Dreams (Searchlight Pictures) Elijah Bynum **A Little Prayer (Sony Pictures Classics) Angus MacLachlanThe Miracle Club (Sony Pictures Classics) Jimmy Smallhorne, Timothy Prager, Joshua D. MaurerPersian Version (Sony Pictures Classics) Maryam KeshavarzShadya (Sony Pictures Classics) Noora NiasariThe Teachers Lounge (Sony Pictures Classics) lker atak, Johannes DunckerM3gan (Universal Pictures) Akela Cooper, James WanShe Came to Me (Vertical Entertainment) Rebecca MillerBarbie (Warner Bros.) Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach **Wish (Walt Disney Pictures) Jennifer Lee, Allison Moore 2022 category winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert

** indicates an unconfirmed release date in 2023 or could be campaigned or moved into another category. All release dates are subject to change.

Oscars Predictions Categories BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

About the Academy Awards The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywoods most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.