Oscars Predictions: Best Actress – Margot Robbie’s ‘Barbie’ Performance Is Worthy ‘Kenough’ for Awards Consideration, but Will Voters Agree?

VarietyAwards Circuitsection is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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2024 Oscars Predictions:

Best Actress in a Leading Role

May December Francois Duhamel Weekly Commentary (Updated July 30, 2023): Thanks to Barbie, all problems of feminism have been solved.

Well, perhaps the Academys TV rating concerns could also benefit if they embrace Greta Gerwigs meta-comedy in a significant way, in categories such as best picture, supporting actor (Ryan Gosling), and best actress for its star Margot Robbie.

How far will Barbie go with Oscar voters? Thats what consumers and casual awards enthusiasts want to know.

Robbie, a two-time Oscar nominee for I, Tonya (2017) and Bombshell (2019), is well-liked by her fellow actors. Coincidentally, as a producer for Tonya, she was also almost double nominated that year. Now, as one of the producers for the Mattel box office hit, she could become the second woman nominated for producing and acting in the same year (the first was Frances McDormand for Nomadland, for which she won both). While an acting nom for the Australian performer is possible, the film would have to prove itself as an awards favorite, which isnt always a given with something from the comedy genre. Nonetheless, it will remain a topic of conversation over the next few months. Golden Globes will surely bite in the comedy/musical categories, but lets see if other groups follow suit.

The first half of 2023 has provided one surefire contender with Greta Lee as the beautiful Nora, a South Korean immigrant who finds her childhood love in Celine Songs Past Lives.

Cannes dropped the one-two punch of Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore from Todd Haynes May December, we expect to hear both of their names on the circuit. However, no decisions have yet to be made on either of their campaigns, but we suspect Portman may opt for lead, with Moore angling for supporting.

In addition to Moore, some other supporting players could opt for leading status, such as Lily Gladstone from Killers of the Flower Moon (were expecting supporting) or the still unseen Maestro and Napoleon with Carey Mulligan and Vanessa Kirby.

Question marks are on several of this years release schedules amid the Hollywood strikes. Thats why were pumping the brakes on Fantasia Barrinos work in The Color Purple, which could go either way with a Christmas release. The same for its Warner Bros counterpart, Dune Part Two with Zendaya (especially after MGMs Challengers already exited the year).

The same goes for the movies without distribution but debuting at some of the upcoming fall festivals, such as Lee with Kate Winslet, Origin with Anjanue Ellis-Taylor and Memory with Jessica Chastain.

There are also a handful of undated projects, such as Leave the World Behind with Julia Roberts and Nightbitch with Amy Adams, that were keeping a close eye on.

Read:VarietysAwards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 18, 2023. Preliminary shortlist voting will begin on Dec. 18, with the results announced on Dec. 21. The voting period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominations announcement on Jan. 23.

The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, Mar. 10.

And the Predicted Nominees Are:Natalie Portman May December (Netflix) **Carey Mulligan Maestro (Netflix) **Greta Lee Past Lives (A24)Sandra Hller Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)Margot Robbie Barbie (Warner Bros.) Next in LineFantasia Barrino The Color Purple (Warner Bros.) **Annette Bening Nyad (Netflix)Emma Stone Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)Lily Gladstone Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) **Kate Winslet Lee (No U.S. Distribution) ** Other Top-Tier PossibilitiesAmy Adams Nightbitch (Searchlight Pictures) **Julianne Moore May December (Netflix) **Sandra Hller The Zone of Interest (A24)Cailee Spaeny Priscilla (A24)Phoebe Dynevor Fair Play (Netflix)Anjanue Ellis-Taylor Origin (No U.S. Distribution)Vanessa Kirby Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures) ***Teyana Taylor A Thousand and One (Focus Features)Jessie Buckley Fingernails (Apple Original Films)Trace Lysette Monica (IFC Films) Also In ContentionSaoirse Ronan Foe (Amazon Studios)Penlope Cruz Ferrari (Neon) **Leonie Benesch The Teachers Lounge (Sony Pictures Classics)Helen Mirren Golda (Bleecker Street)Layla Mohammadi The Persian Version (Sony Pictures Classics)Abby Ryder Fortson Are You There God? Its Me, Margaret (Lionsgate)Jessica Chastain Memory (No U.S. Distribution)Jane Levy A Little Prayer (Sony Pictures Classics)Anjanue Ellis-Taylor The Nickel Boys (MGM)Scarlett Johansson Asteroid City (Focus Features) ** All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**Greta Lee Past Lives (A24)Cailee Spaeny Priscilla (A24)Michelle Williams Showing Up (A24)Julianne Moore When You Finish Saving the World (A24)Julia Louis-Dreyfus You Hurt My Feelings (A24)Sandra Hller The Zone of Interest (A24)Jessie Buckley Fingernails (Apple Original Films)Eve Hewson Flora and Son (Apple Original Films)Lily Gladstone Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) **Vanessa Kirby Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures) **Helen Mirren Golda (Bleecker Street)Scarlett Johansson Asteroid City (Focus Features) **Nia Vardalos My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 (Focus Features)Teyana Taylor A Thousand and One (Focus Features)Trace Lysette Monica (IFC Films)Anya Taylor-Joy The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Illumination)Abby Ryder Fortson Are You There God? Its Me, Margaret (Lionsgate)Rachel Zegler The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (Lionsgate)Ashley Park Joy Ride (Lionsgate)Evangeline Lilly Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quanumania (Marvel Studios)Zoe Saldana Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Marvel Studios)Brie Larson The Marvels (Marvel Studios)Rachel Sennott Bottoms (MGM/Orion)Anjanue Ellis-Taylor The Nickel Boys (MGM)Sandra Hller Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)Thomasin MacKenzie Eileen (Neon)Penlope Cruz Ferrari (Neon) **Jessica Chastain Mothers Instinct (Neon) **Phoebe Dynevor Fair Play (Netflix)Myhala Herrold Leave the World Behind (Netflix) **Julia Roberts Leave the World Behind (Netflix) **Julianne Moore May December (Netflix) **Natalie Portman May December (Netflix) **Carey Mulligan Maestro (Netflix) **Annette Bening Nyad (Netflix)Emily Blunt Pain Hustlers (Netflix)Regina King Shirley (Netflix)Anjanue Ellis-Taylor Origin (No U.S. Distribution)Mia Wasikowska Club Zero (No U.S. Distribution)Alicia Vikander Firebrand (No U.S. Distribution)Kate Winslet Lee (No U.S. Distribution)Jessica Chastain Memory (No U.S Distribution)Amy Adams Nightbitch (Searchlight Pictures) **Emma Stone Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)Molly Gordon Theater Camp (Searchlight Pictures)Jennifer Lawrence No Hard Feelings (Sony Pictures)Hailee Steinfeld Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures)Melissa Barrera Carmen (Sony Pictures Classics)Jane Levy A Little Prayer (Sony Pictures Classics)Layla Mohammadi The Persian Version (Sony Pictures Classics)Zar Amir Ebrahimi Shadya (Sony Pictures Classics)Leonie Benesch The Teachers Lounge (Sony Pictures Classics)Allison Williams M3gan (Universal Pictures)Margot Robbie Barbie (Warner Bros.)Fantasia Barrino The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)Zendaya Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.) **Phoebe Waller-Bridge Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (Warner Bros.)Halle Bailey The Little Mermaid (Walt Disney Pictures)Ariana DeBose Wish (Walt Disney Pictures) ** This official list is incomplete, with all release dates not yet confirmed and subject to change.

2022 category winner: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

Oscars Predictions Categories BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

About the Academy Awards The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywoods most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.