Oscars Predictions 2024: First Half of the Year and Post Cannes Film Festival Update

VarietyAwards Circuitsection is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

UPDATED: June 1, 2023

Weekly Commentary: We interrupt your Emmy Awards season to bring you a quick look at potential film awards players for next years Academy Awards.

Cannes handed the Palme dOr prize to Anatomy of a Fall, but plenty of films received huge boosts out of France. Those also include Killers of the Flower Moon, May December, The Zone of Interest, and a few more titles still looking for a U.S. home.

Read:VarietysAwards Circuit for the latest Emmy predictions in all categories.

The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10, 2024.

The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 18, 2023. Preliminary voting for the shortlists will begin on Dec. 18 with the results announced on Dec. 21. The nominations voting period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominations announcement on Jan. 23.

*** = PREDICTED WINNER

Best Picture

Image Credit: ©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett Collection Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)

Marie-Ange Luciani, David Thion

Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.)

Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe, Patrick McCormick, Denis Villeneuve

The Holdovers (Focus Features)

Mark Johnson, Bill Block, David Hemingson

Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)

Dan Friedkin, Martin Scorsese, Bradley Thomas, Daniel Lupi

Maestro (Netflix) ***

Fred Berner, Bradley Cooper, Amy Durning, Emma Tillinger Koskoff, Kristie Macosko Krieger, Todd Phillips, Martin Scorsese, Steven Spielberg

May December (Netflix)

Jessica Elbaum, Will Ferrell, Grant S. Johnson, Pamela Koffler, Tyler W. Konney, Sophia Mas, Natalie Portman, Christine Vachon

Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)

Emma Thomas, Charles Roven, Christopher Nolan

Saltburn (Amazon Studios)

Emerald Fennell, Josey McNamara, Tom Ackerley, Margot Robbie

“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)

Avi Arad, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Amy Pascal, Christina Steinberg

The Zone of Interest (A24)

Ewa Puszczynska, James Wilson

Oscars category page with rankings

Director

Image Credit: ©Apple TV/Courtesy Everett Collection Bradley Cooper ***

Maestro (Netflix)

Jonathan Glazer

The Zone of Interest (A24)

Martin Scorsese

Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)

Justine Triet

Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)

Denis Villeneuve

Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.)

Oscars category page with rankings coming later in 2023

Actor in a Leading Role

Image Credit: Netflix Kingsley Ben-Adir

Bob Marley: One Love (Paramount Pictures)

Bradley Cooper

Maestro (Netflix)

Leonardo DiCaprio

Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)

Colman Domingo

Rustin (Netflix)

Paul Giamatti ***

The Holdovers (Focus Features)

Oscars category page with rankings coming later in 2023

Actress in a Leading Role

Image Credit: Warner Bros. Fantasia Barrino ***

The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)

Sandra Hüller

Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)

Greta Lee

Past Lives (A24)

Carey Mulligan

Maestro (Netflix)

Natalie Portman

May December (Netflix)

Oscars category page with rankings coming later in 2023

Actor in a Supporting Role

Image Credit: Francois Duhamel Matt Bomer

Maestro (Netflix)

Robert DeNiro

Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)

Colman Domingo

The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)

Jacob Elordi

Saltburn (Amazon Studios)

Charles Melton

May December (Netflix)

Oscars category page with rankings coming later in 2023

Actress in a Supporting Role

Image Credit: Adam Franzino Danielle Brooks

The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)

America Ferrera

Dumb Money (Sony Pictures)

Lily Gladstone ***

Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)

Taraji P. Henson

The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)

Julianne Moore

May December (Netflix)

Oscars category page with rankings coming later in 2023

Original Screenplay

Image Credit: Courtesy of Sundance Institute The Holdovers (Focus Features)

David Hemingson

Maestro (Netflix) ***

Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer

May December (Netflix)

Sam Burch, Alex Mechanik

Past Lives (A24)

Celine Song

Saltburn (Amazon Studios)

Emerald Fennell

Oscars category page with rankings coming later in 2023

Adapted Screenplay

Image Credit: Universal Pictures Dumb Money (Sony Pictures)

Rebecca Angelo, Lauren Schuker Blum (based on the book by Ben Mezrich)

Freuds Last Session (Sony Pictures Classics)

Mark St. Germain (based on the play by Germain)

“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films) ***

Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese (based on the book by David Grann)

“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)

Christopher Nolan (based on “American Prometheus” by Kai Bird, Martin J. Sherwin)

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures)

Phil Lord, Chris Miller, Dave Callaham (based on characters created by Stan Lee)

Oscars category page with rankings coming later in 2023

Animated Feature

Image Credit: Arcadia Motion Pictures How Do You Live? (GKids)

Nimona (Netflix)

Robot Dreams (Neon)

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures) ***

Wish (Walt Disney Pictures)

Oscars category page with rankings coming later in 2023

Production Design

Image Credit: Courtesy of Cannes Film Festival Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.)

Patrice Vermette (production designer), Shane Vieau (set decorator)

Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)

Jack Fisk (production designer), Adam Willis (set decorator)

Maestro (Netflix) ***

Kevin Thompson (production designer), Rena DeAngelo (set decorator)

Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)

Ruth De Jong (production designer), Claire Kaufman (set decorator)

The Zone of Interest (A24)

Chris Oddy (production designer), Joanna Kus, Katarzyna Sikora (set decorator)

Oscars category page with rankings coming later in 2023

Cinematography

Image Credit: Searchlight Pictures The Book of Clarence (Sony Pictures)

Rob Hardy

Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.) ***

Greig Fraser

Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)

Rodrigo Prieto

Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)

Hoyte van Hoytema

Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)

Robbie Ryan

Oscars category page with rankings coming later in 2023

Costume Design

Image Credit: Warner Bros. Barbie (Warner Bros.)

Jacqueline Durran

The Book of Clarence (Sony Pictures)

Antoinette Messam

The Color Purple (Warner Bros.) ***

Francine Jamison-Tanchuck

Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.)

Jacqueline West

Maestro (Netflix)

Mark Bridges

Oscars category page with rankings coming later in 2023

Film Editing

Bob Marley: One Love (Paramount Pictures)

Pamela Martin

Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.)

Joe Walker

Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)

Thelma Schoonmaker

Maestro (Netflix) ***

Michelle Tesoro

Saltburn (Amazon Studios)

Victoria Boydell

Oscars category page with rankings coming later in 2023

Makeup and Hairstyling

Image Credit: Courtesy of Lionsgate Barbie (Warner Bros.)

The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)

Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.)

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (Lionsgate)

Maestro (Netflix) ***

Oscars category page with rankings coming later in 2023

Sound

Image Credit: Getty Bob Marley: One Love (Paramount Pictures)

Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.) ***

Oppenheimer (Warner Bros.)

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures)

The Zone of Interest (A24)

Oscars category page with rankings coming later in 2023

Visual Effects

Image Credit: DISNEY Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.) ***

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Marvel Studios)

The Little Mermaid (Walt Disney Pictures)

The Marvels (Marvel Studios)

Rebel Moon (Netflix)

Oscars category page with rankings coming later in 2023

Original Score

Image Credit: Searchlight Pictures Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.)

Hans Zimmer

Elemental (Pixar) ***

Thomas Newman

Next Goal Wins (Searchlight Pictures)

Michael Giacchino

Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)

Ludwig Göransson

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures)

Daniel Pemberton

Oscars category page with rankings coming later in 2023

Original Song

Image Credit: Anna Kooris / Courtesy of Searchlight pcitures The Color Purple (Warner Bros.) To be announced

Flamin Hot (Searchlight Pictures) To be announced

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (Lionsgate) To be announced

Trolls Band Together (DreamWorks Animation) To be announced

Untitled Diane Warren Documentary Project (No U.S. Distribution) To be announced ***

Oscars category page with rankings coming later in 2023

Documentary Feature

The Eternal Memory (MTV Documentary Films) ***

Little Richard: I Am Everything (Magnolia Pictures)

Stamped From the Beginning (Netflix)

Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (Apple Original Films)

Youth (Spring) (No U.S. Distribution)

Oscars category page with rankings coming later in 2023

International Feature

Image Credit: Courtesy of Cannes Film Festival Anatomy of a Fall (France)

El Conde (Chile)

La Chimera (Italy)

Monster (Japan)

The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)

Oscars category page with rankings coming later in 2023