Cannes 2023: Where the Palme d’Or Race Stands

The Cannes Film Festival has had its fair share of impressive movie premieres this year, with audiences embracing new films from the likes of Jonathan Glazer, Todd Haynes and and Hirokazu Kore-eda. But even the most sustained standing ovation doesnt guarantee that a movie will walk away with the Palme dOr, Cannes highest honor.

It all depends on the vagaries of the jurys taste, and this one is headed up by Ruben stlund, a two time Palme dOr winner for Triangle of Sadness and The Square. And its not just stlunds decision to make. The ultimate victor will come down to the personal opinions of jury members Maryam Touzani, Denis Mnochet, Rungano Nyoni, Brie Larson, Paul Dano, Atiq Rahimi, Damin Szifrn and Julia Ducournau.

Its impossible to gauge what films and performances will speak to them and their cinematic sensibilities. But, based on the reception to the films in competition, as well as conversations with attendees and industry professionals, we can guess which moviemakers may end the week basking in victory.

Cannes policy prevents the winner of the Palme dOr from capturing any other additional prize. So getting the exact breakdown of things can be tricky. Also, not every movie has been screened as of May 22, so this list could change as we get closer to the end of the festival.

There are some out of competition titles, such as Martin Scorseses Killers of the Flower Moon or Un Certain Regard films such as The Delinquents by Rodrigo Moreno and The Breaking Ice by Anthony Chen, that have generated a lot of heat. While theyre not eligible for any main competition prizes, keep an eye on them throughout the season.

Courtesy of Cannes Film Festival Palme dOr (Golden Palm), Grand Prix (Grand Prize of the Festival), Prix du Jury (Jury Prize)

Anatomy of a Fall Justine TrietThe Zone of Interest Jonathan GlazerMay December Todd HaynesMonster Hirokazu Kore-edaAsteroid City Wes Anderson There are 21 films in competition, and while all hope to walk away with the Golden Palm, there are two other places where the jury can reward bold filmmaking Grand Prix and the Jury Prize both considered the runner-up spots of the ceremony.

The track record for Palme dOr winners moving onto Oscar success has varied over the years. Over the past two decades, Roman Polanskis The Pianist (2002), Terrence Malicks The Tree of Life (2011), Michael Hanekes Amour (2012), Bong Joon-hos Parasite (2019) and stlunds Triangle of Sadness have received best picture nominations. However, Parasite is one of only two Cannes winners that have matched the Academys choice, with the other being Marty (1955).

Only nine filmmakers including stlund have won the coveted top festival prize more than once. Director Ken Loach is also among those elite nine (2006s The Wind That Shakes the Barley and 2016s I, Daniel Blake). His new film, The Old Oak, is in competition, but it doesnt screen until the festivals last day. So it will have to pack a punch for the auteur to make history.

The other former winners are Hirokazu Kore-eda (Monster) and Wim Wenders (Perfect Days). Kore-edas film was well-received and could be a dark horse waiting in the wings.

At the moment, based solely on buzz and gut-checks, this seems down to Justine Triets Anatomy of a Fall and Jonathan Glazers The Zone of Interest with a possibility of Todd Haynes May December nabbing the prize if the jury is okay not choosing one of its stars Julianne Moore and Natalie Portman for an acting prize. Both Anatomy and Zone star Sandra Hller, whos received raves for both, could factor into their deliberations if they want to give her a moment on the stage, preventing one of her movies from taking the top award. That could bode well for May December.

We are still waiting to see how Wes Andersons newest flick will be received, and the early word is positive for the comedy.

Courtesy of Cannes Film Festival Prix de la mise en scene (best director)

Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of InterestJustine Triet, Anatomy of a FallTodd Haynes, May DecemberHirokazu Kore-eda, MonsterAlice Rohrwacher, La Chimera Past winners for directing have included Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave), Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War) and Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher), who were all tapped as the favorites to win the top prize during their respective years.

Im guessing whatever filmmaker directed the runner-up for the Palme dOr will take home this recognition. However, the bold vision of Glazers Zone of Interest, which might be his masterpiece, could be too good to pass up. Its also a movie that has the best shot, at the moment, of translating to Academy attention, at least from the competition films (Out of competition, Killers of the Flower Moon feels like a definite player).

Prix dinterprtation masculine (best actor)

Jude Law, FirebrandTye Sheridan, Black FliesJosh OConnor, La ChimeraDave Turner, The Old OakJason Schwartzman, Asteroid City There arent many obvious choices among the leading men at the fest.

Theres early word that Josh OConnor is impressive in La Chimera, so were keeping an eye on what he brings to the mix. Theres also Tye Sheridan, the best part of the dark and gritty Black Flies, who could win big for his work as an EMT in New York.

In the past, Cannes has rewarded big stars such as Antonio Banderas for Pain and Glory and Joaquin Phoenix for You Were Never Really Here, both of whom earned acting prizes. That could bode well for someone like Jude Law, who plays a paranoid Henry VIII in Firebrand.

Julianne Moore and Natalie Portman in Todd Haynes May December Francois Duhamel Prix dinterprtation feminine (best actress)

Natalie Portman, May DecemberJulianne Moore and Natalie Portman, May DecemberSandra Hller, Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of InterestMia Wasikowska, Club ZeroMerve Dizdar, About Dry Grasses Recent best actress winners at Cannes have been breakout performers such as Zar Amir Ebrahimi (Holy Spider), Renate Reinsve (The Worst Person in the World) and Emily Beecham (Little Joe). However, occasionally, a major star delivers a performance so searing that they cant be denied. That seems to be the case with the May December duo of Moore and Portman.

Both could be rewarded, which would mimic 2006s Volver team of actresses who were all given the prize. In 2013, the jury awarded the Palme dOr for Blue is the Warmest Colour to the director and its leading women La Seydoux and Adle Exarchopoulos. So both May December women could benefit, but I would expect Portman to be named best actress if only one person can take the statue.

If they somehow cancel each other out, Hller is on fire at the fest with two films, and Club Zero could have something to offer with Mia Wasikowska.